“A serious rupture with the US would likely reduce Europe’s access to critical military support, technology, intelligence, energy flows and parts of the financial and digital ecosystem,” Said Christine Nissen to told Al Jazeera.
That dependence is why Europe has usually tried hard so far not to clash with the US, she said.
“In the short term, Europe cannot meaningfully decouple without real capability and economic costs,” Nissen said.
As a result, she added, Europe is more likely to gradually distance itself from the United States by establishing new trading partnerships and expanding its capacity to produce essential goods and services.
“Over the past weeks, Europe has started to move more explicitly toward diversification as a strategic hedge: reducing single-supplier exposure, widening partnerships and strengthening internal resilience,” Nissen said.
“At the same time, there is a much stronger political focus on building European capabilities – in defence production, critical technologies, energy infrastructure and industrial capacity. The logic is not decoupling from the US, but lowering vulnerability and increasing European room for manoeuvre over time.
